C.J. Stroud was destined to be a starting QB in the NFL, but could he possibly be on the verge of having one of the best rookie QB seasons of all-time? I know he’s only 5 games into his career, but he’s playing at a level we don’t normally see from a rookie QB and is making the college-to-NFL transition look easy.
We’re talking about a young man who was the third-highest rated quarterback out of high school with a commitment to play at Ohio State – one of the premier football colleges in the country. He redshirted his freshman year, but was one of the best QBs in college football in 2021 and 2022 – living up to the hype.
He threw for 8,123 yards, 85 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in those two seasons – leading Ohio State to a 21-4 record and throwing for at least 40 touchdowns each year. He was also a Heisman finalist in 2021 and 2022 – he finished fourth in the voting process in 2021 and third in the voting process in 2022.
Is C.J. Stroud Having One of the Greatest Rookie QB Seasons of All-Time?
Despite having two years of college eligibility left, C.J. Stroud declared for the 2023 NFL Draft and was almost guaranteed to be a top-3 (even a top-2) pick. He ended up being drafted by the Houston Texans with the No. 2 overall pick after his friend, Bryce Young, went to the Carolina Panthers as the No. 1 pick.
He’s only five games into his career, but what a career it has been thus far. He has thrown for 1,461 yards (292.2 yards per game), 7 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions – and he’s doing it without an elite No. 1 wide receiver. He has already made history and is in the process of making more history by the end of the year.
For example, he has thrown 186 passes without throwing a single interception – an NFL record for a QB to start his career. He’s also just the fourth player – not just rookie – to throw for at least 1,400 yards in the first 5 games of a season without throwing an interception. He has been both effective and efficient.
With that being said, is C.J. Stroud having one of the best rookie QB seasons of all-time? Well, let’s take a look at who he’s competing against!
15. Peyton Manning
Peyton Manning was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1998 NFL Draft out of the University of Tennessee. He finished his rookie season with 3,739 passing yards, 26 TDs, 28 interceptions, and a 3-13-0 record in 16 games. He was second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
Manning led the NFL in interceptions in 1998, but he set new NFL records for most passing TDs (26) by a rookie QB, most completions (326) by a rookie QB, and most passing yards (3,739) for a rookie QB. His TD record would stand for 20 years, his completions record for 12 years, and yards record for 13 years.
14. Gardner Minshew II
Gardner Minshew II was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the No. 178 overall pick (6th round) of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Washington State University. He finished his rookie year with 3,271 yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs, 344 rushing yards, and a 6-6-0 record in 12 games. Safe to say he exceeded expectations.
Minshew was named the Jaguars’ backup QB ahead of the 2020 season with the understanding that Nick Foles would be receiving most of the starts. When Foles went down with an injury in Week 1, Minshew stepped in and started performing well right out of the gate. He hasn’t had a lot of opportunities since.
13. Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of the University of Oklahoma. He finished his rookie season with 349 completions, 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs, 544 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, and a 5-10-1 record in 16 games played.
Murray ended up winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019. He currently ranks No. 6 all-time in completions by a rookie, No. 9 all-time in passing yards by a rookie, No. 17 in passing TDs by a rookie, and No. 6 all-time in rushing yards by a rookie QB. He couldn’t win, but he was throwing the ball well.
12. Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston was drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2015 NFL Draft out of Florida State. He finished his rookie season with 312 completions, 4,042 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs, 213 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, and a 6-10-0 record in 16 games played.
Winston placed second in voting for the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but did earn a spot in his first and only Pro Bowl. He currently ranks No. 10 all-time in completions by a rookie, No. 4 all-time in passing yards by a rookie, No. 8 all-time in passing TDs by a rookie, and tied-6th in rushing TDs by a rookie QB.
11. Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons with the No. 3 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2008 NFL Draft out of Boston College. He finished his rookie season with 265 completions, 3,440 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 104 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, and an 11-5-0 record in 16 games played.
Ryan was named Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2008 and ended up leading his team to the playoffs – where he went 26 of 40 for 199 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in a loss to the Cardinals. He currently ranks tied-2nd all-time in wins by a rookie QB, and No. 14 all-time in passing yards by a rookie.
10. Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield was drafted by the Cleveland Browns with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft out of the University of Oklahoma. He finished his rookie season with 310 completions, 3,725 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 INTs, 131 rushing yards, and a 6-7-0 record in 13 games played.
Mayfield placed second in voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He currently ranks tied-12th all-time in completions by a rookie, No. 8 all-time in passing yards by a rookie, and No. 2 all-time in passing TDs by a rookie. He digressed the following year, but is now putting together a comeback season in Tampa Bay.
9. Mac Jones
Mac Jones was drafted by the New England Patriots with the No. 15 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2021 NFL Draft out of the University of Alabama. He finished his rookie season with 352 completions, 3,801 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 129 rushing yards, and a 10-7-0 record in 17 games.
Jones placed second in voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021, but he did earn his first (and only, so far) Pro Bowl honor at the end of the year. He currently ranks No. 5 all-time in completions by a rookie, No. 5 all-time in passing yards by a rookie, and tied-8th all-time in passing touchdowns by a rookie.
8. Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys with the No. 135 overall pick in the 4th round of the 2016 NFL Draft out of Mississippi State University. He finished his rookie season with 311 completions, 3,667 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 4 INTs, 282 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, and a 13-3-0 record.
Prescott ended up winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2016 and even placed No. 6 in voting for MVP – he also earned his first of two Pro Bowl honors. He finished the season with five game-winning drives and five fourth-quarter comebacks. He ranks inside the top-10 all-time in yards and TDs by a rookie QB.
7. Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert was drafted by the Los Angeles Chargers with the No. 6 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft out of the University of Oregon. He finished his rookie season with 396 completions, 4,336 yards, 31 passing TDs, 10 INTs, 234 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, and 6-9-0 record in 15 games.
Herbert was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, but surprisingly didn’t earn a Pro Bowl spot. He ended up breaking the record for most completions by a rookie QB and most passing touchdowns by a rookie QB, but also came just 39 yards shy of breaking Andrew Luck’s record for most passing yards.
6. Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks with the No. 75 overall pick in the 3rd round of the 2012 NFL Draft out of the University of Wisconsin. He finished his rookie season with 252 completions, 3,118 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 10 INTs, 489 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, and an 11-5-0 record.
Wilson ended up placing third in voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but did earn himself a spot in the Pro Bowl – his first of nine Pro Bowl honors. He ended the season with three fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives. He led Seattle to a playoff win in 2012 and a Super Bowl win in 2013.
5. Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2012 NFL Draft out of Stanford University. He finished his rookie season with 339 completions, 4,374 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 18 INTs, 255 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, and an 11-5-0 record.
Luck ended up placing second in voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he did earn his first of four Pro Bowl honors and led his team to the playoffs – though they lost to the Ravens in the Wild Card round. He currently holds the record for most passing yards by a rookie QB and ranks tied-6th in passing TDs.
4. Robert Griffin III
Robert Griffin III was drafted by the Washington Redskins with the No. 2 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2012 NFL Draft out of the University of Oregon. He finished his rookie season with 258 completions, 3,200 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 815 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs, and a 9-6-0 record.
RGIII ended up winning Offensive Rookie of the Year over Andrew Luck and earned the first (and only) Pro Bowl honor of his career. His 815 rushing yards broke the NFL record for most rushing yards by a rookie QB – a record that still stands today – and his 7 rushing TDs is currently ranked tied-4th all-time.
3. Dan Marino
Dan Marino was drafted by the Miami Dolphins with the No. 27 overall pick in the 1st round of the 1983 NFL Draft out of the University of Pittsburgh. He finished his rookie season with 173 completions, 2,210 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 2 rushing TDs, and a 7-2-0 record in 9 starts.
Marino ended up placing second in voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year, third in voting for MVP, and third in voting for Offensive Player of the Year. He was also named to the Second-Team All-Pro and earned a spot in the Pro Bowl. He went on to win MVP and Offensive Player of the Year the next season.
2. Ben Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers with the No. 11 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2004 NFL Draft out of Miami University (Ohio). He finished his rookie season with 196 completions, 2,621 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 11 INTs, 1 rushing TD, and a 13-0-0 record in 13 games played.
Roethlisberger ended up breaking an NFL record for most wins by a rookie quarterback when he led the Steelers to an undefeated 13-0-0 record in the regular season – they finished the season 15-1-0, but lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Roethlisberger won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2004.
1. Cam Newton
Cam Newton was drafted by the Carolina Panthers with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1st round of the 2011 NFL Draft out of Auburn University. He finished his rookie season with 310 completions, 4,051 passing yards, 21 passing TDs, 17 INTs, 706 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs, and a 6-10-0 record.
Newton ended up breaking the NFL record for most rushing yards by a rookie QB (which was broken by RGIII the following year) and most rushing touchdowns by a rookie QB (a record that still stands today). He also ranks No. 3 all-time in passing yards by a rookie and was named Offensive Rookie of the Year.
What About the Worst Rookie QB Seasons of All-Time?
When talking about the worst rookie QB seasons of all-time, it’s hard not to mention that of Ryan Leaf – who was drafted by the San Diego Chargers with the No. 2 overall pick (behind Peyton Manning) in 1998. He ended up starting 9 games that season and threw for 1,289 yards, 2 TDs, and 15 interceptions.
We should also include John Elway (4-6 record, 1,663 yards, 7 TDs, 4 interceptions) and Alex Smith (2-5 record, 875 yards, 1 TD, 11 interceptions) in this conversation – both were No. 1 overall draft picks and entered the league with high expectations, but both failed to live up to that hype in their rookie year.
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Troy Aikman, like Elway, is a Hall of Fame quarterback today – but his rookie season was abysmal, to say the least. Despite being the No. 1 overall pick, he went on to throw for 1,749 yards, 9 TDs, and 18 INTs– leading the Cowboys to an 0-11-0 record in 1989. He didn’t have his breakout year until 1992.
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